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Marginal Calibration Does Not Compose: Hidden Dependence in Modular Robot Navigation

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 20, 2026 · UTC

Robotic systems are typically composed of multiple independently developed modules that work together to perceive, predict, and act in the environment. Although each module may perform reliably in isolation, composing them does not necessarily preserve uncertainty calibration at the system level. In this work, we show that well-calibrated component interfaces do not necessarily produce calibrated downstream behavior after composition. Using a moving-obstacle prediction pipeline, we demonstrate that position and velocity estimators can each appear well calibrated individually, yet differences i

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First collected: 2026-09-23T09:51:33.063Z. This is not the publication date.