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Predictors and Orchestrators: Parsimonious Machine Learning within an Agentic AI Harness for Multi-Horizon Karst Aquifer Forecasting

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 6, 2026 · UTC

Forecasting karst aquifer dynamics is difficult because recharge responses are nonlinear, event-driven, and governed by strongly heterogeneous flow paths. This study develops and evaluates a deployment-aware framework for 1-12-week-ahead prediction of spring discharge and groundwater level using approximately 79 years of hydroclimatic observations from the Edwards Aquifer, Texas. Five model families were compared under a common temporal evaluation design: extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, long short-term memory, convolutional neural networks, and Transformers. Predictions

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