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When Are Aggregate Agent Traces Diagnosable? Traffic-Governed Interpretation and Calibrated Abstention

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 22, 2026 · UTC

Runtime traces can appear transparent, but a closed-loop policy determines which states are visited and which failures become visible. We study a simulated hotel-pricing agent mapping time, inventory, and market state to discrete price actions under varying demand regimes. A fault may leave no aggregate trace when the policy rarely visits affected cells. We treat entry into aggregate-only fault interpretation as a diagnosability decision preceding scoring or localization. A reference-map gate requires repeated clean-policy support; a matched runtime gate then requires joint support in clean an

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