SOURCE-LINKED INTELLIGENCE

Taking a Second Look: Correcting Sea Ice Forecasts with Sparse Observations

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 21, 2026 · UTC

Sea ice forecasts are issued several days ahead, allowing errors to accumulate while new, often sparse sea ice concentration (SIC) observations become available. We find that fixed-propagation errors concentrate near structured, high-gradient ice edges, whereas homogeneous interiors require limited propagation, suggesting that propagation distance should be state dependent. We therefore introduce ECHO (Evidence-guided Correction with Heterogeneous prOpagation), where ECHO-Scale adapts propagation distance while preserving correction geometry, and ECHO-Delta learns a bounded residual around fix

Read original source ↗ Open in workspace

recordType

paper

region

Global