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A Patient World Model for Early Forecasting of Digital Health Campaign Outcomes: Capabilities and Limits

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 20, 2026 · UTC

Digital direct-to-consumer (DTC) health campaigns are usually measured after the fact. In-flight forecasting commonly relies on a separate classifier for every cutoff and horizon. We treat this task as a dynamic-system problem and build a compact patient world model. The architecture maintains a latent state per patient, learns exposure-conditioned state dynamics jointly with a weekly conversion hazard, and rolls forward into future conversion curves. We evaluate it on a US campaign dataset with 147{,}173 patients and 5.2 million at-risk person-weeks. In a retrospective evaluation conditioned

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