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Revalidation Beats Stateful Routing for Scientific Surrogates Under Distribution Shift

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 31, 2026 · UTC

Surrogate models are often chosen during development and then left in place as new measurements arrive. That practice becomes risky when noise, input support, or physical parameters change. We asked whether such changes call for a stateful adaptive controller, or whether it is enough to validate the candidate models again on each new batch. To study this question, we built RegimeShift-Surrogates, a reproducible streaming benchmark spanning eight analytic and dynamical tasks, four stationary or shifting regimes, ten held-out seeds, and eight classical, multilayer-perceptron, and Kolmogorov-Arno

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