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Forecast Workflow Bench: Evaluating Language-Model Decisions with Budgeted Forecast Tools

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 23, 2026 · UTC

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide forecasts for operational decisions, but accuracy alone does not determine their value. Evaluating agents that use these models requires measuring decision quality and forecast cost. FWBench evaluates this capability on 1,251 electricity and cycle-hire cases using fixed forecast tools and simulated capacity contracts. Agents select models, histories and horizons, then submit capacities to minimize a stated loss-cost objective. We evaluated two hosted and eight local configurations, including small language models, and tested local models with and w

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