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Causal Analysis for Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 25, 2026 · UTC

Transitioning from bespoke time series models towards time series foundation models changes the relationship of model and application from one-to-one to one-to-many. This shift introduces concentration risk as many, potentially high-risk, forecasting applications are exposed to the same biases and failure modes of a single time series foundation model. At the same time, this centralization allows for economies of scale in model development and validation. In this study we investigate how biases and failure modes of time series foundation models can be identified before deployment. We propose a

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