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How Unlikely Is "Unlikely"? Assessing Verbal Probability Perception Across Large Language Models

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 26, 2026 · UTC

Large language models increasingly produce and interpret verbal probability expressions, yet whether these expressions carry consistent meaning across models (or match human perceptions of uncertainty) remains unknown. We present a systematic cross-model evaluation using a word-to-number mapping task grounded in established human benchmarks. Eleven uncertainty expressions were presented to 19 models under two conditions, forced single-number response and explanation elicitation, alongside a novel bidirectional roundtrip test of internal consistency. LLMs track the human benchmark with surprisi

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First collected: 2026-09-21T09:11:58.312Z. This is not the publication date.