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Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 1, 2026 · UTC

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original

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