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Probabilistic Forecasting of Business Process Executions with Neural Temporal Point Processes

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 18, 2026 · UTC

Operators of service-based systems act on forecasts of how a running execution will continue, and such a forecast is actionable only if its reliability is known. Mainstream deep-learning models for this task are discriminative and deterministic: they emit a single next activity and a single remaining-time estimate, without a distribution to reason over. We instead cast the problem as generative sequence modelling with marked temporal point processes, which define a joint density over the next mark and its inter-event time and therefore deliver predictive distributions by construction. Real eve

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