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Foundation models for electricity price forecasting and battery arbitrage: Can they replace market-specific forecasting models?

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 31, 2026 · UTC

Foundation models promise accurate forecasts with little or no task-specific training, but whether they can replace models designed specifically for electricity price forecasting remains unclear. We compare nine variants from five foundation model families, evaluated in zero-shot mode, with two state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting benchmarks in Germany, Poland, and Spain over 2021-2025. Their performance is assessed in terms of point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy, as well as economic value in battery energy storage arbitrage. Only the TabPFN models consistently and significa

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