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Improving Calibration of Black-Box Radiology AI Using Test-Time Augmentation

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 24, 2026 · UTC

Radiology AI systems increasingly inform clinical decisions such as triage, follow-up imaging, and treatment planning. For these decisions to be made safely, model outputs must be well calibrated, meaning predicted probabilities accurately reflect true risk. Many standard techniques for improving calibration, such as MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles, require access to model parameters or retraining. However, proprietary clinical AI systems operate as black boxes, preventing access to the model's internals. To that end, we propose a model-agnostic framework for improving calibration of black-box m

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