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Scalable Clinical Data Infrastructure and Comparative ML Evaluation for Hospitalisation Risk Prediction in Elderly Patients with Multiple Long-Term Conditions using CPRD

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 29, 2026 · UTC

Deep learning architectures are increasingly proposed for patient trajectory modeling in electronic health records (EHRs), yet their advantage over simpler, more interpretable models is rarely subjected to rigorous empirical scrutiny in real-world clinical settings. We present a comprehensive patient timeline pipeline applied to elderly patients in CPRD Aurum, incorporating 260 clinical conditions classified via a three-tier automated framework including specialised detection logic for 17 complex conditions. Using this infrastructure, we benchmark Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (

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