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How to Estimate Whether You Have Found Several Needles in a Haystack: Measuring Calibration in Multi-Label Text Classification

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 22, 2026 · UTC

A key factor in deciding whether to trust an automatic prediction is its confidence score, which should be calibrated to match the actual probability of the prediction being correct. Most confidence calibration metrics target binary or multi-class tasks, while multi-label calibration remains largely underexplored. Multi-label classification tasks, such as assigning medical codes to clinical notes or determining news topics, are usually dominated by a large number of negatives, i.e., labels that do not apply. We show that existing binning schemes to compute label-wise expected calibration error

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