SOURCE-LINKED INTELLIGENCE

Enabling politically sensitive climate change impact assessments for the 21st century

CORDIS · observation · Publication date unknown

enario framework that severely underestimates future vulnerability to climate change. POLIMPACT aspires to remedy this problem. Using cutting-edge methods, including dynamic statistical simulations, machine learning, and expert elicitation, the project will develop a new portfolio of empirically grounded and rigorously validated governance, conflict, and economic development scenario projections, consistent with the SSPs, that for the first time enables accounting for political sources of vulnerability in climate change impact assessments. The scientific merit of the novel scenario products will be demonstrated by comparing impact estimates for poverty and hunger relying on the existing SSP framework with updated results using the extended, politically sensitive projections. If successful, POLIMPACT will initiate a step-change in climate change impact modeling, radically improving the quality and real-world relevance of climate change impact assessments for key social risks over the 21st century. Climate change, governance, conflict, economic development, scenario analysis, statisti

Read original source ↗ Open in workspace

recordType

award

status

SIGNED

region

EU

value

2497678

unit

EUR