SOURCE-LINKED INTELLIGENCE
Dutch Books for Language Models
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a coherent world model. In this paper, we evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a procedure that builds on a theorem due to de Finetti. We elicit forecasts from language models across events generated from stock returns data. We then use linear programs to compute the largest Dutch-book
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Evidence & attribution
- arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · 2026-09-02T16:31:47.000Z
First collected: 2026-09-21T05:32:15.665Z. This is not the publication date.