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Missing the Butterfly and Predicting the Past: Features or Bugs of Accurate AI Weather Models?

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 26, 2026 · UTC

AI weather prediction (AIWP) models rival physics-based models, yet the sources of their unexpected forecast accuracy and the degree of their physical fidelity remain unclear. Here, across a hierarchy spanning observation-based reanalysis, a general circulation model, and the multi-scale Lorenz system, we show that AI models can be trained to skillfully predict the past (backcast), though backcasts are systematically less accurate than forecasts. However, skillful backcasting appears to violate the second law of thermodynamics, and all these forecasting and backcasting models miss the butterfl

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