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Augur: A Synthetic Decision Lab for Rehearsing Reactions to Product and Policy Changes

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 24, 2026 · UTC

Before a product or policy change ships, the question that matters is how people will react to it. Augur rehearses that reaction offline: it builds a typed knowledge graph from the change documents, populates a grounded persona market, simulates the interaction, and returns an auditable decision memo recommending one of five actions. We assemble Gold-50, fifty real product and policy episodes whose real-world outcome is known, adjudicated against the public record, and score the five-way release verdict against it. Our central finding is methodological and negative: most of the measured gap be

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Evidence & attribution

First collected: 2026-09-25T06:12:46.948Z. This is not the publication date.