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LEAP: Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for LLM-based Probabilistic Forecasting

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 1, 2026 · UTC

LLM-based forecasting systems have improved on real-world tasks such as financial markets and sports outcomes, largely through stronger search and tool use. Many systems still ask an LLM to read all collected evidence together and produce the final forecast. We call this design Monolithic Prediction. It can obscure how individual evidence items affect the result and collapse uncertainty across competing outcomes. We propose LEAP (Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for Probabilistic forecasting), which reorganizes how collected evidence is used in the prediction stage. LEAP examines each ev

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