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Phase Transition Frequency as a Training Time Predictor of Test Accuracy in ResNets

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 4, 2026 · UTC

The number of discrete class-separability jumps observed during ResNet finetuning is examined empirically as a predictor of final test accuracy. Across 75 experiments spanning four benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, TinyImageNet, and CIFAR-10-C) and three architectures (ResNet-18, ResNet-50, and ResNet-101), with five to ten seeds per configuration, a strong within-dataset negative correlation is obtained on standard i.i.d. classification benchmarks: \(r = -0.84\) on CIFAR-10 (\(p < 10^{-8}\), \(n = 30\)) and \(r = -0.87\) on CIFAR-100 (\(p < 10^{-5}\), \(n = 15\)). Under distributional stress,

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