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WildfireSpreadBench: The Metric Decides the Model in Wildfire Spread Prediction

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 29, 2026 · UTC

Machine learning is being increasingly used to predict where active wildfires will burn the following day, helping inform evacuation boundaries and containment lines. Most models are evaluated using Average Precision (AP), which summarizes performance across all decision thresholds, although acting on a forecast requires choosing one. We benchmarked five discriminative architectures and one generative model on WildfireSpreadTS using a shared evaluation pipeline and two input configurations. We found that model rankings varied depending on whether performance was measured by AP or by threshold-

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