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A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 30, 2026 · UTC

Feed-forward 3D reconstruction models output a per-pixel confidence that is used by downstream systems as an uncertainty signal. The confidence is trained to serve as a weight in the training loss of models. Whether the confidence can be used as an uncertainty magnitude has not been measured. We audit seven backbones on 13 datasets and score the confidence on four properties, i.e., ranking of error, ratio of error to uncertainty on average, slope of this ratio across the confidence range, and coverage of the implied error distribution. Although the confidence ranks error quite well, the uncert

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