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The Operational Value of Spatial Dependence in Renewable Forecast Scenarios for Single-Period Economic Dispatch: A Controlled Ablation Study

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 21, 2026 · UTC

Renewable forecasts are evaluated by statistical skill (e.g., CRPS), but grid operators pay for realized dispatch cost. We diagnose what drives dispatch value in a single-period newsvendor-style economic dispatch using real public data from two European transmission systems (CWE, DE-4TSO). Spatial coherence across forecast sites falls below the pre-specified 1% practical-significance threshold: a controlled ablation holding per-zone marginal forecasts bit-identical and varying only cross-zone dependence (10 configurations, 3 seeds, paired-bootstrap confidence intervals) shows a coherence gain

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