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The Ceiling Is in the Channel: Auditing Learner Gaps and Measurement Frontiers in Clinical Prediction

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 1, 2026 · UTC

Clinical prediction can saturate for two different reasons: a fitted learner may fail to extract available information, or the recorded variables may impose a population frontier. We separate these quantities through the \emph{learner gap} and the \emph{measurement-channel ceiling}. Optimal balanced accuracy is characterized by total-variation separation, yielding architecture invariance, a sharp partial-identification result under replacement contamination, a cross-fitted ceiling estimator, and exact conditions for multimodal decision improvement. We add two finite-sample diagnostics, namely

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