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Clean Engineering, Unstable Measurement: A Preregistered Reliability Failure of Black-Box LLM Observers on Shared Endpoints

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 3, 2026 · UTC

Language-model judges now gate training data, score generations, and drive leaderboards. The judge is then a measurement instrument, resting on one rarely stated assumption: the same request, sent to the same model name, reads the same tomorrow. We audited that assumption in two preregistered campaigns with every threshold fixed in advance; neither got past validating its instrument. Across 52,988 audited request attempts, same-window repeat rankings agreed at Spearman 0.400 against a required 0.90, and byte-identical next-day replays agreed at 0.78 against a required 0.99, each time with the

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