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Data Leakage Inflates Generalizability of Power Outage Prediction Models

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 25, 2026 · UTC

Power outage prediction models are increasingly used in assessments of climate-driven infrastructure risk, yet current evaluation practices obscure whether these models generalize to the novel conditions such applications require. We identify three common methodological choices in power outage prediction models that influence their ability to generalize across spatial, temporal, and event-based settings. We compare the predictive performance impacts of different methodological decisions using publicly available data for the U.S. East Coast from 2018 to 2023 and feature sets derived from weathe

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